“Push” support for the vaccine from the federal government may be one of the areas of change with the arrival of the Obama Administration. The enthusiasm of the Bush Administration for funding research projects and expanding manufacturing capacity for vaccines – especially those which could be used against a natural/pandemic threat or a bioterrorism event – may lose ground to a new set of health care priorities and spending agenda.

Out of the $7.1 billion devoted by the Bush Administration to pandemic flu preparedness, about $1 billion remains to be spent, according to Dack Dalrymple, the head of Dalrymple Associates and an expert on vaccine policy and funding in Washington.

In a recent speech in Boston, Dalrymple pointed out that about half of the pandemic funding went directly to support vaccine research and capacity expansion. The other part went to non-vaccine initiatives.

Pandemic preparedness projects pumped over $1.65 billion into research, manufacturing capacity and new technologies in the flu vaccine field and development on new technologies (such as cell culture manufacturing) during the past five years.

[Editor's note: The publishers of "The Pink Sheet" will host a webinar Jan. 29 on the outlook for vaccine developers under the Obama Administration. Dack Dalrymple, Chris Colwell (McKenna Long & Aldridge) and Isabelle Claxton (GlaxoSmithKline) will analyze the prospects for the vaccine business in the next four years. For more information, visit: http://www.windhover.com/ezine/html/ac0109-2lp.htm.]

Coordinated by the Office of Biomedical Advanced Research & Development Authority (BARDA) within the Department of Health & Human Services, this influx of money during the Bush years has re-energized the flu vaccine business and brought in large new players where there previously there had been a slow exodus of firms. Three major companies and one significant independent vaccine business have taken advantage of the flu funding to join the US market: GlaxoSmithKline (through imports and the purchase of ID Biomedical in Canada), Novartis (through Chiron), AstraZeneca (through Medimmune) and CSL (joining the US market from Australia).

Are the manufacturing and commercial development subsidies that the vaccine companies learned to count on from the Bush Administration likely to continue? Probably not; but they may be replaced by a different, and more timely, form of incentive – enhanced government-stimulated markets for vaccine products.

The Obama Administration will be beneficiary-oriented, looking for ways to provide more health services to people not now receiving adequate services. Vaccines fit that bill perfectly and vaccine companies have well-identified target segments for many different types of vaccines. There are plans (and improved technology) for vaccinating the elderly and adolescents.

Key Democratic health figures (such as the top health figures on Capitol Hill, Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) are already on record as supporting vaccination programs for the forgotten adult segment of the population. There will be challenges about the payment and distribution systems for reaching the new markets, but the stage looks set for making use of the corporate expansions into vaccines during the last administration.