Two years after shaking up the vaccine field with its big acquisition of Chiron, Novartis has identified a make-or-break pair of projects in the meningitis area. The meningitis vaccines will determine whether Novartis’ bet will turn into a smart long-term diversification or a low-return move into an unfamiliar and unfriendly segment of health care.

To make it in the marketplace, Novartis will have to dislodge or outflank Sanofi Aventis, which currently owns the meningitis market. Novartis says there is plenty of room for its products—thanks to some old-fashioned pharmaceutical-style marketing messages.

Will the vaccine industry finally have its first blockbuster battle?